Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his political party, the AKP, will be in a period of transition after having suffered an electoral defeat at the hands of opposition figure Ekrem Imamoğlufor control of Istanbul after a re-run of the city’s mayoral election.

Erdogan had previously said that “whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey” and with nearly all ballots counted, Imamoğlu had captured 54% of the vote, far ahead of his to his opponent, former Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, who received 45% of the ballots cast. Imamoğlu’s margin of victory was a huge increase on what he achieved in an earlier election held in March that was later annulled after the AKP accused the opposition of voting irregularities.

The decision to re-run the vote was heavily criticised by Turkey’s Western allies and caused an uproar among domestic opponents who said that democracy in Turkey was under threat. The latest results, however, appear to have been a boon for the overall health of the democratic process in an overwhelmingly Muslim nation of more than 80 million people.

Imamoğlu, of the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP), won broad support in Istanbul, by far Turkey’s largest city as well as its cultural capital that was once the seat of government during the 500-year Ottoman Empire. Unlike in previous elections, the CHP did well in traditionally conservative parts of the city where the Islamist-rooted AKP had reigned supreme for the better part of the last 25 years.

“In this city today, you have fixed democracy. Thank you Istanbul,” Imamoğlu told supporters. “We came to embrace everyone,” he said. “We will build democracy in this city, we will build justice. In this beautiful city, I promise, we will build the future.” Erdogan congratulated Imamoğlu for the victory and later wished him luck as mayor.

A Council of Europe delegation said, despite some reported incidents of aggressive encounters with party supporters, noted that “the citizens of Istanbul elected a new mayor in a well-organised and transparent vote, albeit intense circumstances,” according to the delegation’s head, Andrew Dawson.

The AKP’s support among pious and religiously conservative Turks helped it oversee a decade and a half of construction-fuelled economic growth which helped Erdoğan win an unprecedented number of national and local elections by wide margins. The ongoing economic recession and a financial crisis have eroded that has seen the national currency, the lira, lose much of its value over the last year saw support for Erdoğan dry up as voters appear to have also grown concerned about his ever-tighter control over the government.

Dopo le elezioni in Turchia dello scorso 24 giugno Recep Tayyip Erdoğan è ora onnipotente presidente con un mandato quinquennale durante il quale non troverà nessun controbilanciamento ai suoi voleri. Già la campagna elettorale della Turchia è stata condotta in base a una nuova legge elettorale, che ha conferito poteri estesi a livello provinciale e locale per influenzare sia il voto che il conteggio delle schede, ed Erdoğan è comparso in televisione per un totale di 181 ore rispetto a circa 22 ore di tutti i suoi avversari messi insieme (i raduni delle forze di opposizione non sono quasi mai stati trasmessi dai canali tradizionali, tutti nelle mani amiche dell’AKP).

Una volta rapidamente proclamata la vittoria, il presidente ha emesso un duplice messaggio: dimentichiamoci della campagna e andiamo avanti con la “nuova” Turchia. Come a dire: nessuno pensi di mettere in dubbio la legittimità del voto. La Turchia ora è quindi un’autocrazia istituzionalizzata: il presidente non avrà un primo ministro e nominerà uno o più vicepresidenti e ministri senza il coinvolgimento del parlamento. Avrà anche importanti poteri nella nomina dei giudici. Non sembra esserci modo di riconciliare il nuovo stile di governance del Paese con gli standard dell’Ue, Ankara non ha intenzione di tornare a un sistema che sia vicino a questi standard.

La politica estera sarà più incentrata sulla Turchia e nazionalista, tanto più che il partito nazionalista MHP si è assicurato un numero importante di seggi in parlamento ed è ancora più indispensabile per l’AKP. E’ prevedibile quindi che gli Stati Uniti saranno fatti oggetto di dichiarazioni più acrimoniose sulle molte questioni per le quali già esistevano serie divergenze e che l’Ue continuerà a essere criticata per l’islamofobia e per quanto attiene i rifugiati, i visti e l’unione doganale. La prima reazione dell’Ue alle elezioni turche, intanto, è stata un riconoscimento prudente dei risultati e un’espressione della necessità di affrontare urgentemente le principali carenze relative allo stato di diritto e ai diritti fondamentali.

A livello economico la situazione tura è disastrosa: inflazione a due cifre, indebitamento massiccio e crisi valutaria.

Uno dei primi grandi viaggi all’estero di Erdoğan con il suo nuovo mandato sarà al summit della Nato l’11-12 luglio a Bruxelles. Lì emergeranno argomenti importanti, in particolare l’acquisizione di missili S400 dalla Russia e l’eventuale contromisura da parte del Congresso degli Stati Uniti, che potrebbe bloccare la fornitura di velivoli F35 alle forze aeree turche. Sebbene non sia un’operazione della Nato, la lotta contro l’Isis nel nord della Siria potrebbe anche rimanere un argomento di contesa tra Washington e Ankara.

Per quanto attiene invece i rapporti con la Ue, data la totale impossibilità di tornare ai negoziati di adesione – un no-go per Berlino, Parigi, L’Aia e Vienna – le opzioni sono le stesse poche prima delle elezioni: liberalizzazione dei visti, modernizzazione dell’Unione doganale, rifugiati e antiterrorismo. Sono tutti soggetti difficili.

In corsa per la rielezione, il presidente turco Recep Tayyip Erdogan ha fatto  una visita ufficiale di tre giorni a Londra domenica per provare a superare alcune battute d’arresto nella sua campagna elettorale mentre la lira turca continua a precipitare e le prospettive economiche complessive del Paese sono precarie.

Le speranze di Erdogan di organizzare manifestazioni elettorali nelle capitali europee sono state preventivamente bloccate dalle nazioni europee ma il Regno Unito ha dimostrato un approccio pragmatico: la Turchia è l’undicesimo partner commerciale della Gran Bretagna, mentre il Regno Unito è il decimo della Turchia. Nel 2016, il valore del commercio bilaterale si è attestato intorno ai 14,2 miliardi di euro, con buone prospettive di crescita. Inoltre, sebbene ora stia per lasciare l’Ue, il Regno Unito è sempre stato un sostenitore dell’adesione della Turchia all’Unione ed stato uno dei primi Paesi ad esprimere solidarietà dopo il tentato colpo di stato del luglio 2016 che il governo turco attribuisce al movimento Gulen e ai seguaci del predicatore statunitense Fetullah Gulen. Anche i il ministro degli esteri britannico Boris Johnson, nonostante abbia scritto un poema dispregiativo su Erdogan, ha chiesto un accordo di libero scambio con la Turchia dopo la Brexit e il primo ministro Theresa May ha firmato l’anno scorso un contratto da 100 milioni di sterline (113 milioni di euro) per BAE Systems, per lo sviluppo di un nuovo jet da combattimento turco.

Londra ritiene che mercati come la Turchia siano di vitale importanza per il mantenimento del marchio Global Britain durante il processo Brexit. A differenza degli altri partner commerciali europei come la Germania, la Svezia e i Paesi Bassi, il Regno Unito non ha una presenza gulenista forte e apertamente attiva, che è il nemico pubblico numero uno di Ankara. Né il Regno Unito è un hub centrale per il Partito dei lavoratori del Kurdistan (PKK), a capo di un’insurrezione contro lo stato turco per 30 anni.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that he is considering snap elections, originally proposed by his far-right political ally, Devlet Bahceli.

If Turkey did go to the polls, a possible date for elections is August 26. This would prevent new political parties from being eligible to run and, after the elections, the President would find himself significantly empowered. Following the April 2017 constitutional referendum, Turkey’s next President will be the strongest leader among NATO member states. The new Constitution eliminates the office of the Prime Minister and diminishes the role of the Parliament. The President will have a wide scope for ruling by Presidential Decree, without any parliamentary check to his authority. Moreover, the President will be able to appoint 12 out the 15-member Constitutional tribunal.

In recent months Erdogan denounced calls for early elections, citing economic instability. On Tuesday he indicated he was open to the prospect of early polls, as he was due to meet with his political ally, Bahceli, on Wednesday.

Government spokesman Bekir Bozdag told the press on Tuesday that snap elections may be authorized by the ruling AKP party, which suggests a calculated political move. Bozdag also told the press that the EU has not treated Turkey fairly, as the latest progress report indicates that Ankara is drifting away from any prospect of membership; Commissioner Johannes Hahn said on Tuesday that Turkey was taking “strides away” from Brussels as it moves towards authoritarianism. The question now is whether the electoral result is open to surprises, given rising and unemployment, a slowdown in the economy, a meltdown of the lira’s exchange rate, and an ever-widening trade deficit. Turning the problem on its head, Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci called for the introduction of the new Presidential system, as a strong executive would project economic “predictability and sustainability,” al-Monitor reports.

A rather mute question is whether there is a candidate that could actually challenge Erdogan. Abdullah Gul appears to be a formidable challenger, if he decides to run, as he is seen as the architect of AKP’s early economic success, has conservative Islamist credentials, and is pro-EU. Theoretically, he could draw from both liberal and conservative pools of support. Although He does not have his own party, but could run with the smaller Islamist party, Saadet.

The EU got “limited” effect for the €9bn it spent trying to modernise Turkey in recent years, auditors have said. EU funds spent on improving rule of law, governance, and democratic standards “insufficiently addressed some fundamental needs”, the European Court of Auditors (ECA) said in Luxembourg on Wednesday (14 March).

Funds spent on impartiality of judges, anti-corruption measures, organised crime, and press freedom “barely addressed some fundamental needs,” it said. Turkey had been “backsliding” on reforms since 2013 due to “lack of political will”, the ECA added. It “worsened” the situation “by the large-scale dismissals, suspensions of public officials, and restrictions on civil society” as part of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “repressive post-coup measures” from 2016 onward, the ECA said.

The post-coup crackdown “undermined Turkey’s position vis-a-vis the EU” and “affected Turkey’s administrative capacity” by their “sheer scale”, it said. “We therefore consider that the [€9 billion] effectiveness was only limited,” the ECA said.

The EU audit noted that Turkey bore the greater responsibility for how the money was used because the Central Finance and Contracts Unit in Erdogan’s treasury managed 85 percent of the EU spending. But it also criticised the European Commission for failing to impose stricter conditions on how its funds were used – in a lesson for EU enlargement policy in the Western Balkans. The ECA report comes ahead of EU leaders’ plans to discuss Turkey relations at a summit in Brussels next week.

It also comes ahead of an EU-Turkey summit in March and a commission progress report on Turkey in April, setting the scene for EU decisions of future funds for Turkey in the EU’s post-2020 budget. The ECA report looked at a small sample of projects implemented in the EU programme between 2007 and 2016 and visited Turkey for two weeks last year as part of its assessment. It looked at EU-funded projects such as creating a network of judicial spokespersons, improving border surveillance on the Turkey-Syria and Turkey-Iraq boundaries, and buying IT equipment for anti-money laundering bureaus.

The report noted that 75 percent of Turkish NGOs or other associations advocating civil rights had vanished in Erdogan’s 2016 post-coup measures. It added that the commission had “systematically reported serious attacks against press freedom in Turkey” ever since that time.