Asia

Riceviamo e pubblichiamo un articolo di Mario Lettieri e Paolo Raimondi apparso su ItaliaOggi il 4 marzo 2023

Il continuo aumento dei tassi d’interesse da parte della Fed, seguito a ruota dalla Bce, sta avendo conseguenze catastrofiche soprattutto nei Paesi in via di sviluppo. Ciò ha spinto i capitali a lasciare questi Paesi e ha deprezzato le loro valute rispetto al dollaro. Ovvia conseguenza è l’aumento dei prezzi delle commodity, del costo delle importazioni, anche dei beni di sussistenza. Inoltre, l’enorme crescita del costo del debito li ha resi incapaci di far fronte al pagamento degli interessi.

Si aggiunge una specifica situazione della Cina. Oltre agli effetti economici della pandemia, le sanzioni imposte a Pechino non colpiscono solo la Cina ma anche quei Paesi connessi alla sua «catena di approvvigionamenti». Le merci cinesi che vanno nel resto del mondo non sono prodotte esclusivamente in Cina, ma soprattutto nei Paesi dell’Asia e dell’Africa che fanno parte della sua filiera produttiva.

Il «World economic outlook» di gennaio 2023 del Fmi stima che il 15% dei Paesi a basso reddito sia in difficoltà debitoria, un altro 45% sia ad alto rischio di sofferenza e il 25% delle economie dei mercati emergenti sia anch’esso ad alto rischio.

L’ultimo rapporto della Banca Mondiale rileva che alla fine del 2024 il pil dei Paesi emergenti e di quelli in via di sviluppo resterebbe del 6% sotto di quello registrato prima della pandemia. Per loro si prevedono un lungo periodo di debiti crescenti e pochi investimenti. I capitali, infatti, saranno assorbiti dalle economie avanzate a loro volta colpite da tassi e debiti alti. Per 37 Paesi poveri la situazione sarà molto peggiore. Nell’Africa sub–sahariana si stima un aumento del tasso di povertà assoluta nel biennio 2023-4.

Il vero problema, soprattutto per noi occidentali, è che si prendono iniziative prettamente geopolitiche legate alla sicurezza e alla forza militare, spesso senza valutarne le conseguenze economiche e sociali in altre parti del mondo. Gli effetti impattano i Paesi geograficamente lontani ma poi si riverberano in casa nostra. Di solito, quando i governi sono costretti a ridurre i bilanci, tagliano le spese sociali. Ciò porta all’instabilità politica e a rivolte popolari.

Globalmente siamo di fronte a delle situazioni peggiori di quanto sperimentato, a cavallo del primo decennio di questo secolo, quando la speculazione sui beni alimentari ha mischiato l’inflazione con le cosiddette «primavere arabe».

Il Libano, ad esempio, sta affrontando ciò che la Banca mondiale ha descritto come «tra le crisi più gravi a livello globale dalla metà del diciannovesimo secolo». Dal 2019 la moneta ha perso il 98% del suo valore. In Iraq, le proteste sono scoppiate a Baghdad per il crollo del dinaro, la valuta irachena. In Egitto, il valore della sterlina egiziana in un anno si è dimezzato mentre i prezzi sono aumentati.

L’anno scorso lo Sri Lanka, nel mezzo di rivolte sociali, è stato inadempiente per la prima volta nella sua storia. Oggi le autorità hanno aumentato il prezzo dell’elettricità del 66% nel tentativo di ottenere un salvataggio dal Fmi. Il Pakistan sta affrontando la sua peggiore crisi economica, con mancanze di gas, interruzioni di corrente, aumenti dei prezzi. In Argentina, l’inflazione ha raggiunto, di nuovo, quasi il 100% su base annua.

Alti tassi e inflazione sono un mix esplosivo. Il caso dell’Argentina è emblematico, dove il tasso della banca centrale è salito dal 35% di un anno fa al 75% di oggi. Allora la pensione media era di 450 dollari al mese, oggi è di 150.

L’aumento del tasso d’interesse della Fed ha spinto anche quello della banca centrale del Brasile dal 10,7% di un anno fa al 13,75% di oggi. In Messico, il tasso d’interesse è quasi raddoppiato, passando dal 6% all’11,25%. Il tasso d’interesse della Nigeria è aumentato dall’11,5% al 17,5%, l’inflazione è del 22%.

Il mondo sta pagando un altissimo prezzo. Le cause, secondo noi, sono l’acquiescenza della Fed di fronte a una finanza aggressiva, i suoi errori di valutazione e i suoi mancati interventi.

Non è un caso che, come per la cecità dimostrata alla vigilia della grande crisi finanziaria del 2008, oggi, fino all’ultimo minuto, la Fed ha continuato a ripetere che l’inflazione era «transitoria». Tutto è transitorio, ma il problema è la durata della transizione e le sue conseguenze.

In Europa non c’è da stare tranquilli. La Bce ha sempre dimostrato la sua «straordinaria indipendenza», ma ripetendo qualche mese dopo gli stessi errori della Fed.

*già sottosegretario all’Economia **economista

The production of opium increased sharply in Myanmar, rising to a nine-year high, according to the UN.

It touched nearly 795 metric tonnes in 2022, nearly double the production in 2021 – 423 metric tonnes – the year of the military coup.

The UN believes this is driven by economic hardship and insecurity, along with higher global prices for the opium resin that is used to make heroin.

The coup plunged much of Myanmar into a bloody civil war that still continues.

“Economic, security and governance disruptions that followed the military takeover of February 2021 have converged, and farmers in remote, often conflict-prone areas in northern Shan and border states, have had little option but to move back to opium,” said Jeremy Douglas, the regional representative for the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

The region, where the borders of Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos meet – the so-called Golden Triangle – has historically been a major source of opium and heroin production.

The UN report released on Thursday said Myanmar’s economy was confronted by external and domestic shocks in 2022 – such as the Russia-Ukraine war, continued political instability and soaring inflation – which provide “strong incentives” for farmers to take up or expand opium poppy cultivation.

Myanmar is the world’s second-largest producer of opium, after Afghanistan. The two countries are the source of most of the heroin sold around the world. Myanmar’s opium economy is valued at up to $2bn (£1.6bn), based on UN estimates, while the regional heroin trade is valued at approximately $10bn.

But over the past decade crop substitution projects and improving economic opportunities in Myanmar have led to a steady fall in cultivation of the opium poppy.

The annual opium survey conducted by the UN, however, shows that production in Myanmar has risen again. Opium production in 2022 has been the highest since 2013, when the figure stood at 870 metric tonnes.

Since the coup the UN has also monitored even larger increases in synthetic drug production. In recent years, this has supplanted opium as the source of funding for armed groups operating in the war-torn border areas of Myanmar.

However, opium requires a lot more labour than synthetic drugs, making it an attractive cash crop in a country where the post-coup economic crisis has dried up many alternative sources of employment.

Opium farmers’ earnings grew last year to $280/kg, a sign of the attractiveness of opium as a crop and commodity, as well as strong demand. It is a key source of many narcotics, such as heroin, morphine and codeine.

Opium poppy cultivation areas in 2022 rose by a third to 40,100 hectares, according to the report, which also pointed to increasingly sophisticated farming practices. Average opium yields have also risen to the highest value since the UNODC started tracking the metric in 2002.

Mr Douglas said Myanmar’s neighbours should assess and address the situation: “They will need to consider some difficult options.”

He added that these solutions should account for the challenges people in traditional opium-cultivating areas face, including isolation and conflict.

“At the end of the day, opium cultivation is really about economics, and it cannot be resolved by destroying crops which only escalates vulnerabilities,” said Benedikt Hofmann, UNODC’s country manager for Myanmar.

He added: “Without alternatives and economic stability, it is likely that opium cultivation and production will continue to expand.”

According to an earlier UNODC report, prices for opium soared in Afghanistan last spring after the ruling Taliban announced a ban on cultivation.

Relations between India and China have been worsening. The two world powers are facing off against each other along their disputed border in the Himalayan region.

Here’s what you need to know in 400 words.

What’s the source of tension?

The root cause is an ill-defined, 3,440km (2,100-mile)-long disputed border.

Rivers, lakes and snowcaps along the frontier mean the line can shift, bringing soldiers face to face at many points, sparking a confrontation.

The two nations are also competing to build infrastructure along the border, which is also known as the Line of Actual Control. India’s construction of a new road to a high-altitude air base is seen as one of the main triggers for a deadly 2020 clash with Chinese troops.

Relations between India and China have been worsening. The two world powers are facing off against each other along their disputed border in the Himalayan region.

Here’s what you need to know in 400 words.

What’s the source of tension?

The root cause is an ill-defined, 3,440km (2,100-mile)-long disputed border.

Rivers, lakes and snowcaps along the frontier mean the line can shift, bringing soldiers face to face at many points, sparking a confrontation.

The two nations are also competing to build infrastructure along the border, which is also known as the Line of Actual Control. India’s construction of a new road to a high-altitude air base is seen as one of the main triggers for a deadly 2020 clash with Chinese troops.

In September 2021, China accused India of firing shots at its troops. India accused China of firing into the air.

If true, it would be the first time in 45 years that shots were fired at the border. A 1996 agreement prohibited the use of guns and explosives near the border.

The same month, both countries agreed to disengage from a disputed western Himalayan border area.

What’s the bigger picture?

The two countries have fought only one war, in 1962, when India suffered a humiliating defeat.

But simmering tensions involve the risk of escalation – and that can be devastating given both sides are established nuclear powers. There would also be economic fallout as China is one of India’s biggest trading partners.

The military stand-off is mirrored by growing political tension, which has strained ties between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Observers say talks are the only way forward because both countries have much to lose.

The COVID infection rate in Moscow is still growing and is also starting to rise in St Petersburg as well as in the Moscow region, Chris Weafer, the founding partner of Macro-Advisory in Moscow, wrote in a note to investors on June 29, adding that deaths are at a record level and extra hospitals have been opened.

According to Weafer, the continued high infection rate has led to new restrictions in the Russian capital. Indoor visitors to restaurants must show QR codes proving either vaccination or prior infection. From July 12, these restrictions will apply to outdoor dining areas also. Events with more than 500 spectators are banned.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin appear to have distanced themselves from the latest unpopular restrictions, leaving it to the mayors of Russia’s two largest cities to take any flak.

“It is clear that the Kremlin does not want to impose a major lockdown, which would both slow economic recovery and would seriously call into question Putin’s recent claim of victory over the virus,” said Weafer.

Avoiding an official lockdown also means that the state does not have to provide compensation or financial support for affected businesses affected, includng small businesses in the catering and consumer services sectors, which would be the hardest hit by a new lockdown.

Weafer noted that foreigners in Russia have been left in limbo. As of June 28, no provision exists to allow foreigners or Russians with a foreign vaccine to get a QR Code or to otherwise be allowed into restaurants. Instead, they are being forced to get a 72-hour PCR test.

Meanwhile, Russia announced the easing of travel routes to some countries – but others, such as Germany, France and Ireland have placed Russia on their red zone travel lists. Some others, such as Greece, are requiring travelers from Russia to have a negative PCR test before being allowed into the country.

Vaccination at only 12% in Russia

As of July 1, only about 11.4% of Russia’s 145 million-strong population has been vaccinated, with just 14.3% having had at least one dose – numbers that are far behind the US (50%), Israel (57%), and the UK (49%). The compulsory measures for some worker categories, and to enter cafes, etc., that have been imposed in Moscow and St Petersburg will likely be rolled out across the country. Long queues are common for vaccinations in Moscow while vaccination has stopped in some regions because of a lack of doses.

Ukraine

The lockdown has driven new cases to low levels, although there has been an uptick in recent days. The India-origin Delta strain has been identified in Ukraine and measures are being taken, including extra testing of those arriving from India, the UK, Russia, and Portugal. All of Ukraine is in the green zone, but the Kyiv region is likely to be downgraded and the nationwide quarantine system has been extended to the end of August.

Kazakhstan

The rise in new infections has pushed the whole of the country into the red zone, with five regions, including the capital Nur-Sultan, into the red. In Nur-Sultan, there are new restrictions on the opening hours of malls and restaurants, and limits on the number of visitors allowed. Vaccination is progressing well, with about 9.8% of the population having received two doses (up from 7.3% the previous week), and 16% have received at least one dose, Weafer wrote. New rules require service sector workers and those in firms larger than 20 people to either get vaccinated or have a weekly PCR test.

Uzbekistan

Central Asia’s most populous nation has seen a surge in the number of new cases. The Delta strain of COVID-19 has been detected in Uzbekistan, which has restricted movement in and out of Tashkent. PCR tests are required for entry into the country and restrictions have been imposed on indoor houses of worship and in restaurants. Vaccinations have been opened to over 18s in Tashkent and to over 50s nationwide. As of late June, about 1 million (3% of the population) have had two doses, numbers that are up from 960,000 earlier in the month.

Armenia

The peak of the third wave has passed, which is a good result, given that there was a national election last week, but, according to Weafer, Armenia’s authorities are warning of the possibility of a new wave of infections. The current COVID quarantine is in place until July 11.

Azerbaijan

The third wave has clearly peaked thanks to the Azeri government’s harsh lockdown. The government has relaxed quarantine rules, Weafer, wrote, adding that 11.6% of the population has received two vaccine doses, up from 9.6% the previous week. The government may tighten its rules on infection certification in order to encourage more people to get vaccinated.

Belarus

New cases in Belarus continue to fall. The Delta variant has been found in Belarus but seems not to be spreading as fast as in Russia. Vaccination numbers are now announced daily, suggesting the availability problems have been resolved. New vaccination points are announced daily. About 5.8% of the population has had both doses, up from 4% last week. 8.9% have received at least one dose.

Georgia

The third wave has peaked,  curfew now starts at midnight (changed from 2300). The government’s mandate to impose regulations was extended from July 1, 2021, to January 1, 2022. Vaccination supplies are still limited, though some citizens are eligible for doses of AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and the Chinese-made SinoVac. All deliveries of the various vaccines are being given immediately and the government hopes to get a series of major deliveries in July that will be enough to vaccinate the entire population by September.

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) — Coronavirus cases are exploding in Asia and the Pacific with over 5.9 million new confirmed infections in the past two weeks, more than in all other regions combined, the International Federation of the Red Cross said Wednesday.

It warned that the surge is pushing hospitals and health systems to the brink of collapse.

Seven out of 10 countries globally that are doubling their infection numbers the fastest are in Asia and the Pacific, it said. Laos took just 12 days to see its cases double, and the number of confirmed infections in India has doubled in under two months to more than 23 million, the Red Cross said in a statement.

It said Oxford University’s Our World in Data reported more than 5.9 million new COVID-19 infections in Asia and the Pacific during the two weeks. Official figures for much of the region are widely believed to be undercounts.

“COVID-19 is exploding across much of Asia, overwhelming hospitals and healthcare. More people have been diagnosed with the disease in Asia over the past two weeks than in the Americas, Europe, and Africa combined,” Red Cross Asia Pacific director Alexander Matheou said.

“Right now, we need global solidarity for regional support with more medical equipment, support for prevention and urgent access to vaccines,” he said.

While vaccination campaigns are underway in the region, the Red Cross said they are hampered by shortages, hesitancy and the costly logistics of reaching many areas across the region.

“To bring this pandemic under control, we need greater global cooperation so that lifesaving resources, medical equipment, vaccines and money get where they are needed to help people most at risk. We’re only safe when everyone is safe,” it said.

L’UE ha stanziato un pacchetto di aiuti da 134 milioni di euro all’Asia centrale per far fronte alle esigenze urgenti del sistema sanitario e ai problemi socioeconomici. La decisione è frutto dei colloqui tra i ministri degli esteri di Tagikistan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizistan, Turkmenistan e Kazakistan e l’Alto rappresentante dell’Unione per gli affari esteri e la politica di sicurezza e vicepresidente della Commissione europea, Josep Borrell. Le parti hanno discusso l’interazione in ambito economico, dei trasporti, nonché questioni di ecologia, energia e sicurezza.

I rappresentanti dei paesi dell’Asia centrale e dell’Unione europea hanno prestato particolare attenzione alla situazione in Afghanistan sottolineando che l’instaurazione di una pace duratura nel Paese sarebbe una garanzia di stabilità e prosperità per l’intera regione.

L’UE, a sua volta, ha valutato la produttività dei paesi dell’Asia centrale nel campo della sicurezza e della lotta al terrorismo.

Armenia and Azerbaijan accused one another on Tuesday of firing directly into each other’s territory and rejected urges to hold peace talks as their conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region continued.

Both countries were part of the Soviet Union and have been involved in a territorial conflict since gaining independence within the 1990s. The main issue is the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but controlled by ethnic Armenians.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Tuesday that the atmosphere was not right for talks with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev has also rejected any possibility of talks with Armenia.

On Tuesday, Armenia’s foreign ministry said a civilian was killed in the Armenian town of Vardenis after it was shelled by Azeri artillery and targeted in a drone attack. Azerbaijan’s defence ministry said that from Vardenis the Armenian army had shelled the Dashkesan region inside Azerbaijan. Armenia denied those reports.

Armenia, which earlier accused Turkey of sending mercenaries to back Azerbaijani forces, said a Turkish fighter jet had shot down one of its warplanes over Armenian airspace, killing the pilot. Turkey has denied the claim.

On Tuesday, the United Nations’ Security Council expressed concern about the clashes, condemned the use of force and backed a call by UN chief Antonio Guterres for an immediate halt to fighting.

Nagorno-Karabakh has reported the loss of at least 84 soldiers. The current incident is the most serious spike in hostilities since 2016, the when the nations fought for 4 days in the region. The violence resulted in the deaths of over 90 troops on each side and over a dozen civilians.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Southeast Asia’s electricity demand is set to grow at an average rate of 4% annually, based on today’s policy settings. This could result in a doubling of demand by 2040 from 2019 levels, the IEA. The growth is driven by urbanisation, industrialisation and rising consumption by a growing middle class. This presents a golden opportunity for Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) cities to adopt smart, low-carbon solutions and meet rising energy demand in the most efficient way possible.

On September 7-10, more than 250 participants from 27 countries are expected to take part in the inaugural digital edition of the Singapore-IEA Regional Training Programme on Sustainable Energy Policies for Smart Cities, the IEA said, adding that the Programme brings together policy makers, urban planners and academia to look at improving energy efficiency in cities and to formulate policies that meet local urban energy challenges.

According to the IEA, the four-day online training programme will feature experts from the IEA and Singapore government agencies, such as the Centre for Liveable Cities and Land Transport Authority. Insights on key themes of integrated spatial and transport planning, sustainable municipal services and distributed energy resources will be shared. Representatives from the Sustainable Energy Development Authority of Malaysia and the World Bank will also be presenting their experiences.

Energy Market Authority Chief Executive Ngiam Shih Chun said the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy has been unprecedented and the energy sector has not been spared. “Despite the challenges, we must not lose sight of our efforts towards a low-carbon energy future. To better manage rising energy demand in Southeast Asia, the EMA and the IEA have designed a training programme to build capacity and enhance knowledge sharing to support the region’s energy transition,” he said.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the aim is to train thought leaders of today and tomorrow from across all levels of government in the best ways that Southeast Asia can embrace renewables and energy efficiency to accelerate clean energy transitions in its cities. The IEA’s online training programmes and knowledge-sharing community are key to our commitment to making our expertise open and accessible to all.

The training programme is the fourth activity under the Singapore-IEA Regional Training Hub initiative, which was launched in 2016 when Singapore became an Association Country of the IEA. The programme represents a key milestone in establishing a network of energy professionals and urban practitioners to facilitate knowledge exchange and harness cities’ innovative and operational capabilities in clean energy transitions.

Singapore and the IEA will next co-host the 2nd Global Ministerial Conference on System Integration of Renewables on October 27, which is being held in conjunction with the 13th Singapore International Energy Week. The IEA’s new Electricity Security report will be launched at the Ministerial Conference.

 

L’Ue sta intensificando la sua azione globale in risposta alla pandemia in evoluzione, concentrandosi sui Paesi più vulnerabili in tutto il mondo. L’8 aprile 2020, la Commissione europea ha presentato i piani per una risposta UE forte e mirata per aiutare i Paesi partner ad affrontare la pandemia. Il pacchetto collettivo “Team Europe” si concentra sull’affrontare la crisi sanitaria urgente e le esigenze umanitarie, rafforzare i sistemi sanitari, idrici e sanitari dei Paesi partner, nonché le loro capacità di ricerca e preparazione per affrontare la pandemia e mitigare l’impatto più ampio sulle società e economie. Ciò contribuirà a ridurre il rischio di destabilizzazione. Come attore globale e principale donatore di aiuti internazionali al mondo, l’Ue sostiene e promuove una risposta multilaterale coordinata, insieme alle Nazioni Unite, alle istituzioni finanziarie internazionali, nonché al G7 e al G20. La risposta globale dell’Ue alla pandemia di Covid-19 integra i suoi obiettivi strategici nei confronti dell’ambiente e del clima, in linea con l’accordo verde europeo e l’agenda digitale.

L’approccio “Team Europe” combina risorse dell’Ue, dei suoi Stati membri e delle istituzioni finanziarie, non da ultimo la Banca europea per gli investimenti (Bei) e la Banca europea per la ricostruzione e lo sviluppo (Bers). La Commissione e la Bei hanno già impegnato oltre 15,6 miliardi di euro dai programmi esistenti. Il pacchetto aiuterà i paesi più vulnerabili in Africa, nel vicinato dell’UE, in Asia, nel Pacifico, in America Latina e nei Caraibi. I primi pacchetti sono già in fase di attuazione nel vicinato e nei Balcani occidentali.

Nel presentare l’iniziativa è stato ribadito espressamente che le “misure speciali e straordinarie necessarie per contenere la pandemia non devono condurre a un arretramento dei valori e dei principi fondamentali delle nostre società aperte e democratiche” e che l’azione dell’Ue sarà basata sui fatti e combatterà ogni tentativo di disinformazione all’interno e all’esterno dell’Ue.

Stretta dell’Unione europea sulle agevolazioni commerciali di cui gode la Cambogia secondo i principi del Trattato EBA (Everything but Arms) a causa delle sistematiche violazioni dei diritti umani. La Commissione europea, che si è espressa al riguardo, ha stabilito infatti che il paese asiatico perderà circa il 20% dei diritti preferenziali di cui gode nell’ambito dell’EBA, circa 1 miliardo di euro delle esportazioni annuali verso l’UE, anche se continuerà a ricevere un sostegno sulla diversificazione delle sue esportazioni in modo che le industrie emergenti continuino a godere del dazio zero e senza quote al blocco imposto da Bruxelles.

La norma entrerà in vigore il 12 agosto 2020, a meno che il Parlamento europeo e il Consiglio non si oppongano alla decisione.

L’accaparramento di terre, la quasi totale assenza dei diritti dei lavoratori e la repressione politica sono problemi che attanagliano da lungo tempo la Cambogia, come ha indicato la Commissione Europea nel 2019 e che martedì scorso ha presentato un rapporto secondo il quale il governo del Primo Ministro cambogiano Hun Sen negli ultimi tre anni ha represso opposizione, gruppi della società civile e media.

L’Unione europea ha il diritto di revocare le prestazioni dell’EBA in caso di “violazione grave e sistematica” dei principi dell’Organizzazione internazionale del lavoro, ai quali l’EBA si è conformata quando è stata istituita nel 2001 offrendo a 48 tra i paesi più poveri del mondo un accesso esente da dazi ai mercati dell’UE.